“Things are very confusing, looks like we are heading for a civil war and total destruction, its a ticking time bomb, any thing can happen any time”
That quote comes from Raj, in Harare, Zimbabwe on the BBC’s comment page.

Zimbabwe’s election (held March 29th) still has no clear winner. The opposition, led by Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC) accused incumbent Robert Mugabe of “preparing for poll war”.

The opposition petitioned Zimbabwe’s High Court to demand the immediate release of the poll results.

The Zimbabwean Electoral Commission (ZEC) countered by questioning the courts jurisdiction over the issue.

On Saturday, moreover, police prevented the opposition lawyers from entering the court to give their arguments. Luckily they made it into the court on Sunday.

On Monday the High Court ruled that it does have jurisdiction. The judge heard the case Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party said it wanted to re-check the election results because it feared discrepancies…. Right.

Tsvangirai retorted, “It’s ridiculous and absurd to talk of a recount before you know what the result is”.

I predict that we will see one of the following scenarios within the coming week(s):

If the ZEC reveals that Mugabe has lost outright, then:
1. He steps down and Tsvangirai assumes the presidency amid brief mild riots by Mugabe supporters
2. He refuses to step down and major rioting ensues…

If the ZEC reveals that neither candidate has garnered 50% of the vote, meaning that a runoff election must take place between Tsvangirai and Mugabe. (Tsvangirai is predicted strongly to win any such runoff), then:
1. Mugabe rigs the election and wins—major rioting ensues…
2. Tsvangirai refuses to participate (MSNBC reported that his party has already said that they fear a runoff will in fact be a “run-over of Zimbabwe. People are going to be killed”)—Mugabe wins by default and major rioting ensues…
3. Tsvangirai wins the runoff and assumes the presidency amid brief mild riots by Mugabe supporters

If the ZEC reveals that Mugabe has won, then:
Massive Rioting… who knows how long it’ll last…

Did you notice how many of these scenarios ended in massive rioting (i.e. death and destruction)? Four out of six… 2/3rds… not great odds.

The maddening part of this whole debacle is that it’s unrolling slowly before our very eyes. Men, women, and children alive today in Zimbabwe may very well be dead in a few weeks as casualties of this political crisis.

Stay informed with the New York Times’ coverage and Zimbabwe: Election challenge on the BBC.

Fun Zimbabwean fact of the day! The first president of Zimbabwe was Canaan Banana, meaning that a news report in 1980 would have stated, “Today, President Banana addressed the United Nations…”